<u>THE 10 BEST GAMES TO BET</u>
EAGLES at GIANTS
1 p.m., Eagles by 6 ½, 45 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: It’s tempting to take the points with the Giants 5-2 ATS at home and the Eagles 1-4 ATS on the road. But the Eagles’ explosive attack is tailor-made for taking the Giants out of their comfort zone and into a shootout they are ill-equipped to win. Philly’s maligned run defense stepped up big time against Derrick Henry last week and will be able to key on Saquon Barkley. Daniel Jones, with a banged-up WR corps, could be left trying to force things against an Eagles secondary that leads the league with 15 INTs. The strength of the Giants defense is up front but they are going up against the league’s best offensive line and a QB in Jalen Hurts who can elude pressure and make big plays with his legs.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Eagles and the under.
JETS at BILLS
1 p.m., Bills by 9 ½, 44
HANK’S HONEYS: Way too many points. The Jets should have plenty of confidence after beating the Bills in the first matchup and hanging tough at Minnesota last week in a game they easily could have won. Their defense has been outstanding and has shown the ability to create pressure without over-committing, a key against INT-prone Josh Allen. Mike White continues to impress outside the red zone and will keep enough drives alive on third down to keep the Jets in this one. The Bills have been good but not great, even at home where they’re just 2-2 ATS. They are not going to blow out a divisional rival that is playing at a high level.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Jets and the under.
BROWNS at BENGALS
1 p.m., Bengals by 6, 47
HANK’S HONEYS: Joe Burrow has his best chance yet to finally beat the Browns. Deshaun Watson could not have played worse in his first game off his lengthy suspension and there’s still a lot of rust to knock off against a Cincy team that is playing well and will be seeking revenge. The Browns’ secondary has given up nine TD passes over the past five weeks and their rushing defense is among the worst in the league. Burrow’s pass protection has improved greatly since he was sacked five times in the first meeting. The Bengals are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games, failing to cover only against the Browns.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bengals and the over.
RAVENS at STEELERS
1 p.m., Steelers by 2 ½, 37
HANK’S HONEYS: Before Lamar Jackson was injured the look-ahead line was as high as four. To have it swing this far with Tyler Huntley at the Ravens helm seems like a total overreaction. We’re not ready to jump on the Steelers bandwagon yet. They’ve won two straight since the bye and Kenny Pickett has looked good but both Ws came against sub-par defensive units. John Harbaugh knows what his team must do to win the game. Ugly it up and run the ball against a bottom-five run defense.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Ravens and the under.
JAGUARS at TITANS
1 p.m., Titans by 3 ½, 41 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Titans really need a win and this is a perfect get-right spot for Mike Vrabel’s team. The rare in-season firing of GM Jon Robinson is a clear signal to the team that Vrabel is in charge and they should come out of the gate firing. That’s especially true for Derrick Henry, who was shut down by the Eagles but who has rushed for 130 yards in three of his last four games against the Jaguars. The Jags slipped to 1-5 ATS on the road in their blowout loss in Detroit and look to be a good fade prospect at this point. Trevor Lawrence is dealing with a toe injury and they are going to need him at full strength against what should be a very hungry defense.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Titans and the under.
VIKINGS at LIONS
1 p.m., Lions by 2 ½, 53 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Vikings, with one of the best records in football, are underdogs to the Lions? In a game where they can be the first team to clinch a divisional title? Yes. Maybe it’s a sucker bet. Yes, the Lions’ offense has been impressive. But the Vikings are coming off a five-game stretch against some of the toughest stop units in the NFL. The Lions are not in that category and will have a hard time containing all the Vikings’ weapons. Minnesota is 8-0 SU in games decided by eight or fewer points. The Lions tend to lose those games. They will here.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Vikings and the over.
PANTHERS at SEAHAWKS
4:25 p.m., Seahawks by 3 ½, 44
HANK’S HONEYS: The running game has steadied the Panthers’ ship with D’Onta Foreman churning for 4.6 yards per carry over his last six games. That should continue against a slumping Seattle defense that was pushed around a bit by a poor Rams O-line last week. Overall, the shine has come off the Seahawks, who have dropped three straight games ATS. Geno Smith continues having a career year but if Kenneth Walker III (ankle) can’t go, he’s going to have to do a lot by himself. The Panthers, in the playoff mix again, are playing their best football as they emerge from their bye and Sam Darnold seems like a better answer at QB than the dearly departed Baker Mayfield and PJ Walker.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Panthers and the over.
CHIEFS at BRONCOS
4:05 p.m., Chiefs by 9, 43
HANK’S HONEYS: Go right to the total and bet the under. It’s gone that way in 10 of the Broncos’ 11 games and this is as high a number as we’ve seen lately. With as anemic as the Broncos offense has been (and they will be without WR Courtland Sutton to boot), the Chiefs are going to have to supply most of those points and we just don’t see them going over 30 against this stout a defense in a divisional rivalry game. Picking a side is harder but, as good as the Denver defense has been, we can’t see Patrick Mahomes being totally shut down. They’ll get their two-score lead and coast home.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chiefs and the under.
49ERS at BUCS
4:25p.m., Niners by 3 ½, 37 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Tom Brady’s late-game heroics aside, the Bucs’ one-dimensional attack, now 17th in the league in scoring, isn’t going to go well against what has become the best defense in the NFL. Brady will be unloading it all day against pressure from Nick Bosa as the 49ers smother the Bucs running attack. Brock Purdy was more than serviceable after taking over for Jimmy Garoppolo and should have an even better command of the offense after a week of first-team reps. The Bucs are 3-8-1 ATS, the worst mark in the NFL, part of it due to being over-rated, the rest due to their uninspired play. And, yes, they are traveling cross country on a short week.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: 49ers and the under.
PATRIOTS at CARDINALS
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Patriots by 1 ½, 45
HANK’S HONEYS: The Patriots have a ton of issues on offense that should be resolved here against a bad team. They generally win games when they win the turnover battle with their low-risk offense and so far, Kyler Murray has been a turnover machine. While the Pats have had problems with mobile QBs, Murray is bound to force a few while being chased by the New England pass rushers. After losing two straight, the Patriots are right outside the playoff bubble. We don’t see Bill Belichick being outcoached by Kliff Kingsbury in what is almost a must-win game.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Patriots and the under.
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<u>LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH</u>
DOLPHINS at CHARGERS
8:20 p.m., Dolphins by 3, 52
HANK’S HONEYS: Be cautious. Injury questions abound, starting with Tua Tagovailoa’s ankle, Jaylen Waddle’s ankle and both offensive lines. That said, Tua was outmatched against the 49ers’ physical defense but he’s 11-0 SU against .500 or worse teams and, if relatively healthy, figures to get back on track against a thoroughly unimpressive Chargers defense. The Bolts were torched by Derek Carr and Davante Adams last week and are going to have a hard time keeping up with Miami’s speed. Meanwhile, it seems that Justin Herbert is a one-man team and as good as he is, that’s not going to cut it if he’s trying to match points with Tua. Love the over here. Neither defense is all that good.
CAN’T HELP YOURSELF? Dolphins and the over.
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<u>BEST OF THE REST</u>
TEXANS at COWBOYS
1 p.m., Cowboys by 17, 45
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Cowboys and the under.
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WEEK’S BEST BET: Jets. White out conditions in Buffalo.
LAST WEEK: 8-7 ATS, 8-7 OVER/UNDER
OVERALL: 89-102-4 ATS, 102-91-2 OVER/UNDER
BEST BETS: 8-5