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On today’s show we discuss:
Future Proof Festival
Using Siegel’s data back to 1802:
Over 10-year periods, around 3/4 of the time stocks out-perform T-bills
Over 30-year periods, the odds increase to >90% of the time.
Since 1871, 30-year stocks out-performed Tbills all rolling periods. pic.twitter.com/h3mzzV1tOt
— Jeremy Schwartz (@JeremyDSchwartz) July 9, 2022
Was it the stock price? https://t.co/cWFU1sXLmt pic.twitter.com/BPmUUkZzrN
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) July 5, 2022
Amazon’s e-commerce revenue is 50% larger than the next 9 companies *combined*.
Including Walmart! pic.twitter.com/Gs2csUOiyI
— Ben Gilbert (@gilbert) July 7, 2022
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) has taken in approx $26bil this year, more than the TOTAL assets of all but 13 ETF issuers…
It’s actually outpacing last year’s haul of $47bil even tho S&P 500 ↓ 20% (vs ↑ 29% in 2021).
Just a $$$ vacuum cleaner.
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) July 5, 2022
The economy has 524,000 fewer jobs than we did at the peak just before Covid.
— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) July 8, 2022
Workers aren’t getting let go at a higher rate!
The layoff rate is still below 1% and just a touch above the lowest rate is over 20 years. pic.twitter.com/7iBGPLPQpf
— Nick Bunker (@nick_bunker) July 6, 2022
Workers who are part-time for economic reasons dropped by 707,000, meaning many part-time workers who want full-time work are finding it bc of the strong labor market.
As a share of total employment (right), this is the lowest level on record.#jobsreport 11/ pic.twitter.com/yDh5Of150c
— Daniel Zhao (@DanielBZhao) July 8, 2022
#GasPrices declining into a 27th straight day. National average down 13 cents from a week ago to $4.661/gal, median price $4.55/gal, top 10% average $5.98, bottom 10% average $3.98! Americans today likely to spend at least $142 million less on gasoline than 27 days ago.
— Patrick De Haan ⛽️📊 (@GasBuddyGuy) July 11, 2022
Average gasoline price in U.S. has been declining for past 22 days … most recent daily drop was largest since March 2020 pic.twitter.com/A2Vz7sAJMo
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 7, 2022
Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: “Early signs of cooling in the housing market” https://t.co/iunK8bzgso pic.twitter.com/YyE8y5sDHI
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) July 6, 2022
there it is
*US MORTGAGE RATES PLUNGE TO 5.3% IN BIGGEST DROP SINCE 2008 pic.twitter.com/ihIpygL7lD
— Brian Chappatta (@BChappatta) July 7, 2022
the market has been whipsawing
a few weeks ago we had the fifth largest weekly increase in rates, this week the 8th largest weekly decline since 1971 pic.twitter.com/HYxvNBxPpr
— 📈 Len Kiefer 📊 (@lenkiefer) July 7, 2022
June home builder sentiment and survey results are in. Top themes: 1) A lot more new home buyers cancelling. 2) Price cuts becoming fairly common. 3) Drop in demand finally cooling construction cost pressures (builder layoffs also happening). Market commentary to follow…
— Rick Palacios Jr. (@RickPalaciosJr) July 11, 2022
BOX OFFICE: Marvel wins again!#ThorLoveAndThunder tops all w/ $143M. That is:
– The 3rd biggest opening of 2022
– The 12th biggest MCU opening
– The highest opening ever for Natalie Portman & Taika Waititi
– Only the 3rd time 2 different films topped $100M in consecutive weekends pic.twitter.com/cXedNDLFuS
— Erik Davis (@ErikDavis) July 10, 2022
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