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On today’s show we discuss:
Future Proof Festival
Market volatility over the past 5 weeks is at its highest since 1928, causing a lot of negative sentiment. Over the past 80 years, similar instability coincided with the ends of bear markets, @JasonGoepfert writes.
— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) June 29, 2022
Because @awealthofcs and @michaelbatnick asked in today’s “Animal Spirits” pod, here’s a look at how ETF flows have followed recent performance (proxied by $DBC) in the commodities space.
The pattern is…familiar. pic.twitter.com/hx1TlUPqAV
— Ben Johnson, CFA (@MstarBenJohnson) June 29, 2022
The US recession/peak inflation trade is intensifying dramatically now. This morning, SOFR rate futures imply:
Collapse in terminal rate to 3.15%
>60 bps of easing next year
Two 25 bps cuts fully priced, nearly 50-50 chance of a third
First cut in Q2 almost fully priced pic.twitter.com/lUAlfov1nh
— Jamie McGeever (@ReutersJamie) July 1, 2022
“Bed Bath & Beyond said it would work aggressively’ to clear out excess inventory (which means a ton of price cuts – remember the $AMZN Prime day kicks off in a couple of weeks, and a slew of other retailers will hold competing sales extravaganzas).” – @knowledge_vital $BBBY
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) June 29, 2022
Ouch. Inflation is far too important a problem for the White House to keep making statements like this. It’s either straight ahead misdirection or a deep misunderstanding of basic market dynamics. https://t.co/XgKfEICZpk
— Jeff Bezos (@JeffBezos) July 3, 2022
Basically running a giant experiment in Darwinian natural selection.
Those who think there’s a market for buying second hand digital pictures of airline tickets and those who have money left. pic.twitter.com/UJ3mrqSm6U
— Tweets from Zach Weinberg™ (@zachweinberg) July 1, 2022
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